Notre Dame
Men - Women
2011 - 2012 - 2013
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
43  Jeremy Rae SR 31:25
78  Martin Grady JR 31:47
206  J.P. Malette SR 32:15
247  Walter Schafer JR 32:20
284  Jake Kildoo SO 32:25
347  Michael Clevenger FR 32:34
356  Jonathan Shawel SR 32:35
405  Tim Ball FR 32:42
410  Jeff MacMillan SR 32:42
600  Jason Hoard SO 33:06
719  DJ Thornton JR 33:19
786  Kevin Durham FR 33:27
985  Patrick Lesiewicz JR 33:45
1,469  Josh O'Brien FR 34:27
1,686  Chris Quinn SO 34:44
2,123  Jack Riely FR 35:27
National Rank #24 of 311
Great Lakes Region Rank #4 of 30
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 90.9%
Most Likely Finish 31st at Nationals


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 10 at Nationals 0.2%
Top 20 at Nationals 6.6%


Regional Champion 0.3%
Top 5 in Regional 92.0%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Jeremy Rae Martin Grady J.P. Malette Walter Schafer Jake Kildoo Michael Clevenger Jonathan Shawel Tim Ball Jeff MacMillan Jason Hoard DJ Thornton
Notre Dame Invitational (Blue) 09/28 583 31:25 32:11 32:04 32:15 32:22 32:34 33:08 32:42 32:13
Notre Dame Invitational (Gold) 09/28 1122 33:06 33:05
Wisconsin adidas Invitational 10/12 678 31:19 31:56 33:13 32:48 32:08 33:03
Big East Championships 10/26 580 31:37 31:46 32:01 32:21 32:21 32:46 33:08
Great Lakes Region Championships 11/09 683 31:32 32:17 32:08 32:26 32:45 33:19
NCAA Championship 11/17 745 31:31 32:06 32:15 32:42 34:03





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 90.9% 27.4 636 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 2.0 2.1 3.2 3.5 4.2 5.4 6.9 8.0 12.1 15.4 21.4
Region Championship 100% 4.0 134 0.3 5.8 17.4 53.8 14.6 5.5 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.0



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Martin Grady 94.8% 81.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2
J.P. Malette 91.1% 151.1
Walter Schafer 90.9% 162.7
Jake Kildoo 90.9% 175.9
Tim Ball 90.9% 210.0
Jeff MacMillan 90.9% 211.5
Jason Hoard 90.9% 238.7


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Martin Grady 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 3.6 7.0 10.2 12.7 10.3 9.1 7.1 5.5 3.9 3.4 2.9 2.5 2.0 1.7 1.7 0.9 1.5 1.0 0.9 1.1 0.9
J.P. Malette 21.7 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.3 2.7 3.3 4.3 4.2 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.2 3.8 3.9 3.6 3.5 3.0 2.7 3.1 2.5
Walter Schafer 25.1 0.0 0.3 0.5 1.2 1.8 2.6 2.6 3.5 3.8 4.0 3.9 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.2 3.2 3.3 2.9 2.4
Jake Kildoo 28.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.7 1.9 2.4 2.2 2.8 2.7 3.1 3.2 3.5 3.2 3.2 3.4 3.1
Tim Ball 43.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.6 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.4
Jeff MacMillan 43.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.7 1.3 1.0 1.4
Jason Hoard 64.1




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 0.3% 100.0% 0.3 0.3 1
2 5.8% 100.0% 5.8 5.8 2
3 17.4% 99.9% 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 1.9 3.0 3.6 3.2 1.9 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.0 17.4 3
4 53.8% 99.0% 0.3 0.8 2.0 4.5 6.9 10.3 11.1 7.9 5.7 2.7 1.1 0.5 53.3 4
5 14.6% 96.0% 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.1 1.7 2.8 2.7 2.5 1.8 0.8 0.6 14.0 5
6 5.5% 0.4% 0.0 5.4 0.0 6
7 1.7% 1.7 7
8 0.6% 0.6 8
9 0.1% 0.1 9
10 0.1% 0.1 10
11 0.0% 0.0 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
Total 100% 90.9% 0.3 5.8 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.3 4.1 8.0 11.6 15.2 15.8 11.4 8.6 4.8 1.9 9.1 6.1 84.8




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Florida State 100.0% 1.0 1.0
Eastern Kentucky 98.9% 1.0 1.0
New Mexico 98.4% 1.0 1.0
Virginia 82.0% 1.0 0.8
Texas A&M 52.7% 1.0 0.5
Villanova 34.8% 1.0 0.3
North Carolina St. 20.7% 2.0 0.4
Dartmouth 5.0% 1.0 0.0
Missouri 4.6% 1.0 0.0
Illinois 2.5% 1.0 0.0
Penn State 0.8% 1.0 0.0
Cal Poly 0.7% 1.0 0.0
Washington St. 0.5% 1.0 0.0
Michigan State 0.5% 1.0 0.0
Providence 0.4% 2.0 0.0
Harvard 0.3% 1.0 0.0
Louisville 0.3% 1.0 0.0
North Carolina 0.2% 2.0 0.0
McNeese State 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Cornell 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Navy 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Ohio State 0.0% 2.0 0.0
Total 5.2
Minimum 3.0
Maximum 9.0